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Jimding,
Margin trading by the GenPop is, generally, a mugs game. Sensible Trade House risk/credit departments usually reserve that "privilege" for more credit worthy clients. However, upon reflection the phrase " greed is good" suddenly popped into my mind :rolleyes:.
In our case, we kept our positions but went to 25 percent cash during the decline. Bought back in on the way up and are back up to where we were earlier in the year.
 

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It is no longer where is the bottom, rather where is the new top? Don't fight the trend. :^)? 59 Trading sessions and all back ++
 

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I'm up up almost exactly 50% from pre-C19 market all time high. That is a very substantial amount of money and more importantly time to retirement that has evaporated. I am very likely to double my original portfolio within the next few months. No shit. It's real...
Congratulations!

Indeed it is real.
 

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It is no longer where is the bottom, rather where is the new top? Don't fight the trend. :^)? 59 Trading sessions and all back ++
Well you got your answer today. Hope you were all in cash before this drop.
 

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Well you got your answer today. Hope you were all in cash before this drop.
It doesn't go up in a straight line, but the long-term trend is upward.

🙂
 

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It doesn't go up in a straight line, but the long-term trend is upward.

🙂
True, but "long term" is different for different people.

Look at the period from the late 60s to the early 80s. 15 years where in real dollars the S&P 500 lost 2/3 of its value.
Yeah, in the long term it eventually came back, but if you retired in 1968 that was scant comfort.

I could make the argument that there are a lot of similarities between our current moment and 1968.
Long period of economic expansion, very low interest rates, low energy prices, overall feeling that stock prices have to trend upwards...etc.
I'm not predicting anything like what happened back then (in fact, I'm not making any predictions at all) but I think the downside risks are greater than a lot of people realize.
 

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An interesting analysis of the downsides of foreclosure for homeowners:


Seemed to overlook the likelihood that the same people who put themselves at risk for foreclosure might normally be expected to have a higher risk for divorce and other 'consequent' ills.

I dont suppose it would help to suggest that tighter controls on mortgages, to prevent people becoming overextended, rather than an extended safety net to remedy the situation after the fact, might be a great deal cheaper, and more effective. Not to mention, rewarding irresponsible decisions rarely inhibits them in the future.

And also suggests that the financial and social costs of foreclosure would better support a decision to pay down a mortgage, rather than investing income and retaining a mortgage. Possibly not justified on a dollars and cents basis, but on a severity-of-consequences basis.
 

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Well, they spend a LOT of money buying those politicians!
 

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Ain't that the truth? How someone making a lower end salary can be qualified for $500K home?
Problem is that unlike when I was making minimum wage I could afford the $102/month payment on a $17K house in a workman's neighborhood.
With the advent of the mini mansion and an Eastern culture bidding higher prices My neighborhood have a majority of homes worth close to a million dollars and all the new ones going for $1.2 million to start.
There doesn't seem to be a starter price neighborhood anymore.
 

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An interesting analysis of the downsides of foreclosure for homeowners:


Seemed to overlook the likelihood that the same people who put themselves at risk for foreclosure might normally be expected to have a higher risk for divorce and other 'consequent' ills.
Yeah, teasing out cause and effect on that would be difficult, as it likely goes both ways.

I dont suppose it would help to suggest that tighter controls on mortgages, to prevent people becoming overextended, rather than an extended safety net to remedy the situation after the fact, might be a great deal cheaper, and more effective. Not to mention, rewarding irresponsible decisions rarely inhibits them in the future.
It is crazy the level of debt ratios the banks will let you have these days. Some years back (2006) the wife and I wanted to buy a house, and went to bank to see what we qualified for. We were shocked, to put it mildly. No way we could have reasonably afforded what they would give us. Ended up borrowing about 55% of what they had offered, and felt like that was a lot. The old days, with 35-37% debt/income allowed, made a lot more sense.
And also suggests that the financial and social costs of foreclosure would better support a decision to pay down a mortgage, rather than investing income and retaining a mortgage. Possibly not justified on a dollars and cents basis, but on a severity-of-consequences basis.
Maybe, maybe not. A lot depends on your level of income security.
 

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My funds have finally crawled back to within $1500 of where they were before the fit hit the shan. I'm still waiting for the leader to declared the virus over and every one goes back to work and gets productive so the economy can take off like a rocket as predicted. I want to become dirty rotten filthy rich in my short life time.
 

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My funds have finally crawled back to within $1500 of where they were before the fit hit the shan.
Same here. My T.Rowe Price Retirement Funds are actually higher than they were back in January......or whenever the market started sliding down the slope. I was scheduled to retire back in May. But when we were sent home on March 18 from the office (to work "remotely" now), it screwed up all my off duty plans......so I am still working. Told my boss I want to cut back to 3 days per week starting in October, then unplug the mouse entirely from the CAD Machine next March.
Off Topic: I had a physical done today at my doc's office. She is VERY afraid of what may happen around the September - November timeframe with the virus........
 

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I just got a quarterly statement, my investments are up 20% for the quarter, but only ½% gain from Jan 1.
 

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Off Topic: I had a physical done today at my doc's office. She is VERY afraid of what may happen around the September - November timeframe with the virus........
this is definitely on my mind. trying to watch the news to see what's happening as fall/winter hits the sourhern hemisphere was/is such a waste of time.

i sometimes think back to the good old days when the "news" broadcast actual news and not propagandistic political opinion masquerading as news.

i jumped at just the right time and put a good chunk in guaranteed investments for a few years and reinvested the rest with the full intention of getting back out before the end of August.
 

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Discussion Starter #178
Automatic rebalancing is responsible for those with more money now than January. When the ratio of money in bonds exceeded the preset ratio of money in stocks, bonds were sold and stocks purchased. Those stocks of course were purchased hen the y were low. Now that they are higher you have more money.

Those that saw the crisis coming (like all those financial advisors serving those congressmen) just did a more thorough version of the same thing. Moved all stocks before the crash into vehicles that would not go down during the crash, and then back in near the bottom. Thereby increasing their stock holding by 1/3. Or, moving the money into stocks that would actually benefit during the last six months. And there were many.

The only real losers are those that waited until the crash occurred and then pulled their money.

Me, I'm looking forward to the vaccine. Any vaccine will do. And it is looking like it is going to happen this winter. When it does there are some severely depressed stocks that will quite suddenly nearly triple in value. Like Delta (DAL).
 

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interestingly, i just checked my registered mutual funds and they are back to exactly the same value as before the covid crash but they weren't as affected as individual stocks.
 
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