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Discussion Starter #142 (Edited)
Not for everyone. Certainly those trying to be aggressive about it trying to get rich overnight. But re-balancing your portfolio because the conditions make it a benefit is market timing. Since volatility has settled down it has become more of a challenge. Any idiot can make money when the S&P 500 is swinging 300 points a day.

Of course if you bought Delta five days ago you could take a 20% profit today. And probably wait a week an buy it again like you did five days ago.
 

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Discussion Starter #144
I'm not follwoing you. I would not call seeing the crash coming luck. Some people have studied pandemcs and how they will affect society the same way other people study other subjets. There are at least two of those folks on this forum (one is me). And some people have worked in the stock market or have a better than average understanding of it (many here including me).

It was easy to see the crash coming and exit near the top. It's not necessar to see the absoute bottom to benifit from taking a conservative position near the top and then an agressive position near the bottom. At least when the market drops by a third and then swings 10 percent a day for weeks. And stocks that dropped by 2/3rds belonging to companies the governement will not let fail provide lots of oppurtunity. Even if they do take a little while to come back.

The oppurtunity for market timing trades still exists with stoks going through big swings. 20% gain can be a lot of money espeaially if it repeats itself over and over again.

No offense intended because this is the place to express opinions, but most folks are doing just that. Expressing opinions (and a lot of dogma). But it's working for me. My original reason for starting this thread was to see if anyone could state a reason why what I was sugegsting wouldn't work. That is all history now and it worked. In fact it is still working. Noody seems to be listening though.
 

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My Brother who is very pessimistic has done very well with his Gold mining stocks most recently. A neighbours 12 year old was also given $1000 by his Grand Mother to invest (As well as his older Brother and Sister) The older kids bought bank stocks or kept it in cash and went backwards. The young guy said he wanted to invest his in Video Games and Peloton. He is way up.
 
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Discussion Starter #147
I just watch mine, which I have little control of, rising from the ashes. Up and down but rising more than falling.
When I die the kids will have something to buy better wine selections.
That is what most investment companies would have told you to do. I called Vanguard before the crash and asked if they had any advice for the coming crash and they gave me the "do what you have always done and weather the storm line." It was very disappointing. Especially since I told the adviser I expected a crash to occur. I expected more from Vanguard. I have come to believe that their advice (nearly all large investment companies) is based on their business model. Dollar cost averaging makes sense. Weathering the small bumps makes sense. If the probability of a crash is VERY HIGH and potential for significant growth is VERY LOW choosing not to do anything about it just doesn't make sense to me. I would go as far to say that advisers who don't advise their clients to go conservative in such situations is taking their money without providing quality service.

It's easy for me to imagine that the very best financial advisers seek out US legislators. Especially those with blind trusts. For me it is very easy to imagine that the very best financial advisers could see the crash coming and would take their clients out of the stock market. Note that is not political. It's comment on the best of the financial industry vs the financial adviser in a box down the street.

Others may see it differently and they may be right for their circumstance, but it's working out for me.

Maybe someone will remember this and twenty years from now benefit from it.

But low hanging fruit still exists out there. All it takes is more faith in the math than fear.
 

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Woulda, coulda, shoulda and, truly, noone has the answers.
In our New Financial World Order, Quants and Algos need volatility and they also create it!!
In retirement, the difference in allocations/investment choices should be directly linked to an individual's current, short term and long term needs i.e their expenditure timelines.
In the end, living your life within your means and not buying into the Madison Ave. bullshit, would assure many folks a life of less stress and a more secure retirement.

Both my wife and myself were raised by parents who were children of the depression (on both sides of the pond). Old World values of thrift, abhorrence of debt and savings were respected and, interestingly, are now propounded by Ormond, Ramsey et al.
Younger folks.. .should take heed and do some serious financial navel gazing!
 

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Discussion Starter #149
But low hanging fruit still exists out there. All it takes is more faith in the math than fear.
It is simply undeniable once you have worked in the field that an individual's personality plays a huge and almost unavoidable part in their ability to grow wealth. It is not rationale, it is emotional. But emotion is as real as math when the emotion prevents application of the math. It took me a long time to accept that and it still strikes me as a great tragedy.

Two examples. My brother-in-law will not even discuss investing in the stock market because of hearing his coworkers talk about how much money they lost in the market on any given day.

One of my sisters has a conservative portfolio heavily biased towards bonds. It reduces the ups and downs which drive her crazy at the cost of any significant growth over time.

I could talk for an hour about missed opportunity, the historical length of bear markets vs bull markets, and ho long it talks to double your money at any given interest rate, but ti will do no good. The fear is as real as someone with a crippling fear of heights or water over their head.
 

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It is simply undeniable once you have worked in the field that an individual's personality plays a huge and almost unavoidable part in their ability to grow wealth. It is not rationale, it is emotional. But emotion is as real as math when the emotion prevents application of the math. It took me a long time to accept that and it still strikes me as a great tragedy.

Two examples. My brother-in-law will not even discuss investing in the stock market because of hearing his coworkers talk about how much money they lost in the market on any given day.

One of my sisters has a conservative portfolio heavily biased towards bonds. It reduces the ups and downs which drive her crazy at the cost of any significant growth over time.

I could talk for an hour about missed opportunity, the historical length of bear markets vs bull markets, and ho long it talks to double your money at any given interest rate, but ti will do no good. The fear is as real as someone with a crippling fear of heights or water over their head.
And some people would rather do other things with their time. :)
 
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Interesting statistic on the news. Since sporting events, horse racing, and the casinos have been shut down, a lot of people who were habitual gamblers are now funding accounts and betting on the stock market.

That makes me feel confident.
 

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Most 'investors' do. But absolutely no one will guarantee results, especially the pros, so no other term is accurate. And for the most part, what you are gambling on is what other investors will feel about the market at any particular time. If the mob feels the market will move up, it usually does, and vice versa.

There was a story some years back about a group of physicists that went into investing, and were quite successful at it. They refused to explain the method of their success, claiming that, if their methods became known, they'd need to start over. I suspect they modelled the behavior of investors, rather than the actual stock market.
 

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If you prefer the "accurate" term of "betting on the stock market", you are the perfect customer for the CFD market😉.
 

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I've had a few acquaintainces that wanted to argue the 'gambling' description. So I said, give me a number, that you'll guarantee for a return, I've got $100K to 'invest'. You just agree to make up any shortfall. No takers.
 

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A lot depends upon your timeline and intent. There are differences between investing in individual stocks or market sectors, looking for value and return (dividends) rather than day trading.
Usually no quick returns in that strategy (other than a buyout) and it certainly requires discipline and research.
And as far as general stock market participation goes, noone can give guaranteed future returns.
However, as a long term investor and stock market participant, I have done quite well.
 

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A bit concerning, that folks are borrowing money to 'invest'. Kinda like getting a 'marker' in Vegas, if they do that any more.


Obviously makes the markets less stable, as higher demand drives higher prices, presumably.

Anyone have a definitive, accurate, proven breakdown on factors in an investment price? How much is actual value of the company in question, how much is potential growth, how much is investor confidence (or lack thereof), how much is market demand (dollars looking for a place to go)? And probably other things I'm not thinking of. Undoubtedly varies with the type of instrument, with things like CDS's being a pure bet.

Sure seems like market demand is driving prices right now, with almost every country's economy in recession.
 

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Discussion Starter #160 (Edited)
I'm up up almost exactly 50% from pre-C19 market all time high. That is a very substantial amount of money and more importantly time to retirement that has evaporated. I am very likely to double my original portfolio within the next few months. No shit. It's real.

To the handful of folks that have provided congratulations and notes of appreciation, thank you.
 
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