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Patience. My portfolio's are handled by the bank investor so I don't blame myself for poor investment choices. Just ride the waves and give it time. Seems some days it rises and easily as it falls on others
 

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My FA is pretty conservative and has done wonderful for me. He predicted this correction and I came out ahead this time around. I am preparing to re-enter the market in a little bit. My employer's stock is being crushed though and that concerns me a little. But, I am only a part timer these days.
 

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I ‘tried’ to read it. Just as in everything these days it pays to not panic and make knee jerk changes. Now about that toilet paper....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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Discussion Starter #5 (Edited)
This is probably more for people with cash or previously conservatively invested money to move into equities at the bottom. Sell high, buy low, retire after it comes back up kind of thinking. If you didn't sell at the top, or don't plan to move aggressive at the bottom, probably not of much value.

Scenario 2 of the article seems to be playing out and the bottom is still a month or two off. We will know more here in the U.S. after large scale testing starts.

Incidentally the pundits talking about the virus possibly going away in the summer must not realize there are two hemispheres. Usually the U.S. looks to Australia for what flu variety is likely in the coming winter. Given they have summer when we have winter Australia experience is likely to offer at least some insight to this summer in the U.S.

 

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Based on history, it will probably bottom at the point that I sell and then take off . I'll let you know when I pull the trigger so you will know when to buy.
We must share similar logic.
My fund is much improved since I've taken myself out of the decision loop. :ROFLMAO::LOL::ROFLMAO:
 

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Was reading an article in "Fortune" last week that said that, with the correction (up to that time) the stocks had transitioned from absurdly overpriced to just overpriced. Came into some cash a while back, thought about investing it, and decided it was foolish to buy at the top of the market. Glad I didn't. Market prices seem to be largely a factor of a lot of money trying to find someplace to go, rather than the worth of the companies involved. Along with a very high tolerance for companies with little to no hope for generating a profit for the foreseeable future.

I'm amazed the Tesla stock is still riding high. Couple production problems in China, numerous huge lawsuits pending, Panasonic pulling out of the solar cell business, and lots of competition in the e-car market, and I'm not sure what investors are seeing.

Very definitely the worst strategy is to sell out, unless you are sure the companies involved are going down the toilet. Personally I have little directly in the stock market, my spouse has quite a bit, and I need to remind her every time this happens that a) she bought when the prices were quite a bit lower, so these are paper losses and b) many will rebound in time.
 

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I am buying a little — sometimes a lot — pretty much every day. I had been in 50 per cent cash for about a year and a half. If it hadn't;t been this it would have been something else.
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
Included in today's national COVID-19 briefing was a mention of an expected peak in April. No mention of how long that peak might plateau or the rate of decline from the peak. Double the current number every week for five weeks and your in the neighborhood of 500,000 cases. Wide spread testing will likely both identify many more cases and contribute a reduction in transmission of the virus. Too many stinking variables but the bottom comes after the worst of the economic impact, not number of cases.

 

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The market was (and has been) way overvalued. The Chinese flu was just the pin that popped the balloon.

I had an interesting conversation with a friend who is pretty intelligent. He was commenting that he just lost the 30% he gained in the past 12 months and shrugged it off as breaking even. I said he was wrong, unless he took his profits off the table.

100,000 at 30% growth = 130,000
130,000 at 30% loss = 91,000

I used easy numbers to demonstrate the math. I think I depressed him. He forgot that interest compounds in both directions.
 

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he's still only down 9 per cent. Not a biggie. I am where I was last September. And the euphoria at the time prevented me for entering the market any further. Now is the time to start getting back in. The bottom could be next week, next month or three months from now, but if history tells us anything most people will wait too long to get back in.
 

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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
Exactly, but most have to resist the urge to buy high and sell low.

Unfortunately I encounter this thinking all the time with my own family and friends. Fear driven investing or lack of investing and lemming like buying at the high end. Although I still try to explain why long term aggressive investing is the way for the average person to accumulate wealth there are some that just cannot (or will not) tolerate the ups and downs and will simply buy high and sell low no matter what you tell them. And others that will simply spend their money because they can not grasp the big picture. I have a brother-in-law who is like the latter. Otherwise a very normal enjoyable fellow, but no ability to see past the daily ups and downs. It's a shame really.

I also have a sister who is nervous, but listening, watching me, and learning. She would have had a very poor retirement otherwise.

Keep in mind that I would be riding through this if the economic effect were not so obvious and predictable at the big picture level.
 

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Aggressive at the right moment is the only thing I'd add to your discussion.

That and don't try to "time the market." When it starts going down, big time — as it most certainly has now — don't try to wait till the absolute bottom. Invest in periodic terms on the way down and on the beginning of the way down. Yes, because you don't invest all your money at exactly the lowest point, you will not absolutely maximize your gains, but by dollar cost averaging you make sure that you're "in market" at the right time and ultimately the difference down the line is the difference between a 35 per cent or 40 per cent gain. Let me tell you that while everyone else is still sitting on their hands, you won't be think "if I'd only timed the market perfectly."
 

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I agree with some concepts on this thread, but not all of them. You should be aggressive when you are younger. I was.

But, my wife has retired and I am semi-retired. Our window to recoup losses is much shorter now and I have the capital I need already. I am systematically reducing my exposure to the whims of the stock market. I have no more in the market now than I am willing to loose at least 50% of.

My next investing will be in another motorcycle. I expect that investment to start losing money right away.
 

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ST same place I was until two weeks ago. Now piling back in. The lower it goes now, the less downside risk there is. Good luck
 

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Discussion Starter #19 (Edited)
FYI, I pulled ALL my money out of the market at 5% from the all time high. Looks like we are going to hit the 7% down trading stop right away this morning followed by a 15 minute pause and the follow on heavy sell off. Starting to look a lot like 2008.
 
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