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Forecasting Weather (Rain)

3.5K views 23 replies 18 participants last post by  notacop  
#1 ·
What do you guys use to forecast the weather?

I have watched the local weather channel or used the “The Weather Channel” app on my phone and have made a few bad choices. Only once have I got rained on, but at least 5 times now I choose not to ride the bike and no rain.

I have my truck to take on bad weather days or if I just don’t want to ride my bike, but I sure would like to be able to forecast the weather better.

Maybe it is my choice to not ride if the chance of rain is 30% or higher. Last night it was 40% chance and nothing.

Please post up what sites you use to monitor the weather for your daily commutes.
 
#2 ·
#5 ·
If I'm on the computer...

noaa hourly weather graph

or accuweather interactive radar

... and of course the weatherbug app on the droid phone.

I don't care so much for the percentages as the blips, bleeps, and blops tell alot more about what I want to know when I'm concerned about more than just temperature.
 
#6 ·
I gave up on forecasting the rain. I've been tracking my rides to work since October. 363 rides (one way). On 71% of those, I've had nothing, not even road spray from a passing shower hitting my face shield. If I take a look at days on which it has rained, there are 181 days (round trip) and I've been dry 57% of the time. That isn't to say it hasn't rained during the day while I'm sitting here at work or before or after my commute. I just quit worrying about the rain. It is a short ride (8.5 miles) and when it rains, my gear keeps me dry. I don't like it much in the winter months - dark and rainy isn't fun. But I like to ride and if I paid attention to the forecasts, I'd miss a lot of good rides.
 
#9 ·
ya, I kinda do my own forcasting by looking at anamated radar.

the website I use is Weather Undergournd, for my local weather rather than use my own zipcode, I use Laconia's approx 20 miles north of where I live, the local for my zip gives seacoast NH forcast, prolly cause I'm about 500ft higher in elevation than just 1 mile away
 
#10 ·
I have a two drop rule.

1st drop is Mother Natures fault.
2nd drop is my fault.

Thanks so far for the links. I will check them out.
 
#11 ·
Carry some rain gear. I'd never get anywhere if I was worried about some rain fall. There are those who prefer not to get wet. I can sympathize with the motel bills waiting for the sun.
I don't have a phone that has apps but I like the weather channel for general coverage and the regional newpapers.
 
#12 ·
forecasting weather

I let the weatherman talk me out of riding. Whether or not I care to get wet depends on the destination. I really don't like getting the bike wet, it just makes me imagine all the water getting in her nooks and crannies. The places
that I miss when cleaning.
Recently, my 2012 Vee and I were part of a 3 day trip. The bike was left unprotected at night while it rained continously. The water was pooled in the
ignition and handlebar switches. One Goldwing rider brought a small "bikini"
type cover. I'll make sure I bring one next time.
 
#13 ·
I really don't like getting the bike wet, it just makes me imagine all the water getting in her nooks and crannies. The places
that I miss when cleaning.
That right there is your problem... you clean your bike. I like to think of the crud as a protective layer to not only block the plastic and paint fading UV rays but to also be a sacrificial coating in the event of a slide or any other unwanted contact with other hard surfaces. Could possibly work as a theft deterrent as well... hard to fence a filthy bike.:mrgreen:
 
#14 ·
I generally hit NOAA and see what their predictions seem to be where I'm at, where I expect to be, time of day, etc. This info is taken into consideration, but is not weighed too heavy in the overall risk of a shower or storm. I do find their predictions to be more accurate then others over all.

Really tho, I do hit the radar and see what appears to be developing and dissipating, where its tracking before I leave for a ride. This does weigh a lot into the formula.

I do have an android phone that I can do spot checks of the radar as needed. This helps out more in the summer time when the weather can change sharply as the day moves on.

While the predictions of the day, and radar do help out, the best that I have found is keeping an eye to the sky and see what is developing as you are riding. I have at times changed my route to avoid areas, or known when to slow down a bit to let something move along before I got there. A very good sign that rain is in the area is sudden wind, or dropping temperatures.

I guess you can say I am my own weather man (or is it weather person today?). While it has kept me out of trouble most of the time, I have gone on one ride where it was suppose to be clear or only 30% chance of rain, and went on a 90 mile on and off soaking (mostly on), or 80% chance of rain with threatening clouds all day, and not a drop of rain anywhere.

Your mileage will vary, you're trying to predict a changing environment (the sky) with your ever changing location (as you ride). I generally don't mind the rain, but thunderstorms are another story.
 
#16 · (Edited)
A lot of it is location. I grew up in California. Rain there is pretty predictable - if there is a storm to the west, rain is coming. Here in Virginia, and many other areas not only can a storm pop up out of the blue, it can be downright torrential. Sooner or later you will get rained on, heavily, so you just accept it I guess. So I take the forecasts as advisory and always have my frogg toggs or other rain gear or just accept I will get wet. At 90 degrees and 90% humidity it is actually a relief. Folks I know from the northwest or the same. It rains, they get wet, so they just wear a hat.

I'm not saying ride rain or shine. No sense riding when you don't like it. But maybe get out in it a bit more. Nobody likes getting shot first with a squirtgun, but after the water fight gets going nobody seems to care.
 
#17 ·
I guess part of my situation is that I ride at night to work and come home in the dark as well. So as far as watching the sky on my 25 mi each way is a bit hard to do so I have to hope the weather station provided me with good results.

However the thing that bothers me the most is the ride home and not knowing if it will be raining. I can always make a good call on the ride to work and staying dry. I guess I can care less if I get wet on the ride home vs going to work.
 
#18 ·
To the OP, where are you located? I am a fellow Strommer who also happens to be a meteorologist. Tell me your region so I can get an idea of your local climatology and give you some reliable sources. Sounds like most folks on here have it right, though. Check out weather.gov (your tax dollars at work, providing much better and more specific forecasts than The Weather Channel) for the most reliable daily forecasts, and take a gander at the radar for a more short-term forecast (0 - 1 hr). I don't trust forecasts beyond 5 - 7 days. Satellite data can also help to show you where stuff is beginning to pop up, especially in the afternoon (www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite).

As other posters have said, keep an eye on the sky and carry some good rain gear. Weather is not a perfect science, and forecasts are bound to be wrong sometimes. That's why I'm in the research sector; I don't have to forecast. ;)

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Motorcycle.com Free App
 
#22 ·
To the OP, where are you located?
I am in North Fort Worth and commute to Irving, but it makes it hard to watch the sky because I work nights.
 
#21 ·
When my commute was ~12 miles each way, I didn't worry too much about rain (unless it was also cold). I recently started a new job, where my commute is 49 miles each way and most of that is on an interstate...now I pay much more attention. Generally, I look at the hour by hour forecast on weather.com to try and get an idea of what my commute is going to be. Now if it's greater than 40% or so, I'll take the Jeep.