Interesting, and no doubt it played a large part, but NY has subways with lots of shiny metal surfaces and tightly packed people. A perfect place to spread the virus in the population. SF not as much.
No one doubts the benefits and effects of the shelter in place strategy. But that graph, by that reporter isn't very informative. Time to react is of course important. But density per sq mile / against time would have been better. Much better. Still, thanks for posting that. It is important to imprint the seriousness of the situation.This illustrates what a difference a week makes
Rick,In case anyone was wondering how China was managing to bring their numbers down.
"HONG KONG — The news was abrupt and, to some, surprising: Overnight, a Chinese province near Russia, had cut its count of confirmed coronavirus cases by more than a dozen.
The revision stemmed from what appeared to be a bureaucratic decision, buried in a series of dense documents from the national government. Health officials said that they would reclassify patients who had tested positive for the new coronavirus but did not have symptoms, and take them out of the total count of confirmed cases."
How Many Coronavirus Cases in China? Officials Tweak the Answer
It appears they have done the math and figure they can live with the consequences of the virus better than they can deal with shutting down their economy. Paint a pretty picture and start the machine back up.
The relapse could come from anywhere, including right here in the US and Canada. We (and you) still have a significant portion of the population that has not taken this seriously enough and still go about their day with out regard for the situation. And what happens when people get tired of this 'self" isolation and just start going out and about as they normally would do or think that 14 days isolation gives you a get out of jail free card? China is not the only problem, and maybe not the most significant problem, for what happens down the road. At least they have a better idea of the denominator. We can only guess.I see it as an ignorant recipe for disaster for the whole world. It should lead to relapse in China and then a relapse everywhere else. Even if North America were to ban travel from China people going and coming from other countries wold bring it here just like before.
Back to the already heavily criticized "herd immunity" or what i like to call the "Doctrine of Death". The only way you effectively achieve herd or group immunity is with a vaccine. Anything less than a vaccine to reach group immunity is so disastrous, does not guarantee a shorter period to obtain it nor are those who propose it willing to post their death numbers nor guarantee the % of the population that needs to be infected. Move on.Realize that until we either have a vaccine, or have a large portion of the population immune due to infection and recovery, we are merely postponing the inevitable. If we temporarily quell the infections, but a large portion of the population is still vulnerable, a single infected person introduced into the population starts the cycle over. And the longer this goes on, the longer it will take the economy to recover. To some extent the people refusing to isolate are doing the rest of us a favor, as they will likely get infected, removing their numbers from the portion still susceptible to infection. Of course, we then need to isolate from them so they don't pass it along.
If there's a silver lining in this, it will be the proof that the medical community is obviously unqualified to deal with this sort of problem, and hopefully steps will be taken to improve before the next one comes along, and the one after that.
I still like my idea of engineering a similar virus, with fewer and less harsh effects, that will still confer immunity to this one. Preferably more contagious. Infect sample populations, send them out in the world to spread it. Much cheaper and quicker than making 300 million doses of vaccine