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This illustrates what a difference a week makes
No one doubts the benefits and effects of the shelter in place strategy. But that graph, by that reporter isn't very informative. Time to react is of course important. But density per sq mile / against time would have been better. Much better. Still, thanks for posting that. It is important to imprint the seriousness of the situation.
 

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In case anyone was wondering how China was managing to bring their numbers down.

"HONG KONG — The news was abrupt and, to some, surprising: Overnight, a Chinese province near Russia, had cut its count of confirmed coronavirus cases by more than a dozen.

The revision stemmed from what appeared to be a bureaucratic decision, buried in a series of dense documents from the national government. Health officials said that they would reclassify patients who had tested positive for the new coronavirus but did not have symptoms, and take them out of the total count of confirmed cases."

How Many Coronavirus Cases in China? Officials Tweak the Answer


It appears they have done the math and figure they can live with the consequences of the virus better than they can deal with shutting down their economy. Paint a pretty picture and start the machine back up.
Rick,
It sure would be nice to have the luxury of not counting those who we knew were positive. We here in NA do not have that luxury. We have no idea how many are positive.
 

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I see it as an ignorant recipe for disaster for the whole world. It should lead to relapse in China and then a relapse everywhere else. Even if North America were to ban travel from China people going and coming from other countries wold bring it here just like before.
 

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I see it as an ignorant recipe for disaster for the whole world. It should lead to relapse in China and then a relapse everywhere else. Even if North America were to ban travel from China people going and coming from other countries wold bring it here just like before.
The relapse could come from anywhere, including right here in the US and Canada. We (and you) still have a significant portion of the population that has not taken this seriously enough and still go about their day with out regard for the situation. And what happens when people get tired of this 'self" isolation and just start going out and about as they normally would do or think that 14 days isolation gives you a get out of jail free card? China is not the only problem, and maybe not the most significant problem, for what happens down the road. At least they have a better idea of the denominator. We can only guess.
 

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I don't get that. Sure there are some that who have a Pollyanna attitude in the west and go about their business as usual, but It isn't being done on a national basis anywhere except maybe China. However, I thought about it some more after my post about China not counting anyone who tests positive unless they have symptoms. That doesn't necessarily mean that anyone testing positive with symptoms is not told they are positive and directed to self quarantine, but that was exactly what the uproar was about in China itself. Someone test positive, had no symptoms, and then traveled and infected others.
 

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".....but that was exactly what the uproar was about in China itself. Someone test positive, had no symptoms, and then traveled and infected others......."

And that is different, than here, how? There is little, if any, legally, actually enforced quarantine/isolation at the moment here. There are lots of "mandatory quarantine" edicts but truthfully, they are relying on people voluntarily obeying it because it is nearly impossible to enforce without draconian measures. These measures are spelled out and could come into play, but so far, they have not. So, until they are actually arresting people, or welding their doors shut, someone who has tested positive can still wander around. And until wholesale testing of everyone is available, mandatory quarantine/isolation of positive cases is a finger in the dike only. The vast majority of the solution is still going to be people showing common sense and shedding their "me above all else" mentality.

The sooner we stop playing the blame game, and come to the realization that the situation is indeed global, progress to a resolution is going to be slowed.

just a couple of examples of "mandated quarantine"


 

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We'd probably have better luck getting the infected to self-quarantine if it wasn't taking 10-15 days to get back results on the tests. I can only assume people would be at least more likely to comply with the order if they knew that they were actually sick and contagious.
 

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Realize that until we either have a vaccine, or have a large portion of the population immune due to infection and recovery, we are merely postponing the inevitable. If we temporarily quell the infections, but a large portion of the population is still vulnerable, a single infected person introduced into the population starts the cycle over. And the longer this goes on, the longer it will take the economy to recover. To some extent the people refusing to isolate are doing the rest of us a favor, as they will likely get infected, removing their numbers from the portion still susceptible to infection. Of course, we then need to isolate from them so they don't pass it along.

If there's a silver lining in this, it will be the proof that the medical community is obviously unqualified to deal with this sort of problem, and hopefully steps will be taken to improve before the next one comes along, and the one after that.

I still like my idea of engineering a similar virus, with fewer and less harsh effects, that will still confer immunity to this one. Preferably more contagious. Infect sample populations, send them out in the world to spread it. Much cheaper and quicker than making 300 million doses of vaccine
 

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They are attempting to flatten the take up curve as many locations will not have the ability to properly treat large numbers of patients. If you are young and fit the danger is reduced - but young people ARE dying as well.
For older people or those with pre-existing conditions high numbers of infected means choices for doctors as they allocate what resources they have on the basis of probable outcomes.
 

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If I may contribute to this conversation again.....The enormity of this crisis is finally beginning to get through to the deniers. Now is not the time to blame...... although there is a strong instinct to do so. I identified my daughter a few post back as a hospital nurse on Long Island. Unfortunately there is a lot of covid-19 activity there. She is scheduled for a few days off although she is on call. I had a text exchange with her this morning. I asked her what precautions she is taking when she is around my son in law and her 1 1/2 year old son. She texted back "None other than the usual hand washing, clothes washing and caution. Especially in handling Ryan's food. The truth is that this might be going on for months and it is unrealistic for me to lock myself in the bedroom with Ryan knowing I'm in there banging on the door all day and crying to see me. We have to just hope for the best and have faith that if we get sick we will be OK. If quarantining myself was an option I would. I can't stay with you guys. I have nowhere to go". It broke my heart. We MUST do all we can for each other. My advice is to seek out the advice and information coming from our health agencies and listen to our health care professionals.
 

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Turkmenistan has outlawed mention of coronavirus in the news, removed it from health brochures, and are using plain clothed policeman to arrest anyone wearing a mask or mentioning the virus in conversation.

 

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Don't know how many people know of Victor Davis Hanson. He is a long time Stanford think-tank guy who, in his other life, is a farmer from Fresno, CA. This caught my eye because it made me remember last Sept when there was a trace of news about a "imperfection" in last years flu vaccine. I even had a couple of days of a mild flu. At the time nobody paid much attention and certainly did not make any connection with Hanson's comments about a third of the way down this article.

This article isn't a call for action nor is it a conspiracy expose`. But it is informative.

 

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Because of population density, preparedness, hospital space, etc, some areas may not suffer as much as others.
A model predicting state-by-state COVID-19 deaths and resource use suggests Oregon could be making progress flattening the curve.
Projected fatalities are also down to 566 COVID-19 deaths by early August (the model previously projected 584).

that's 566 Deaths in Oregon by August. 566 Deaths with a population of 4 Million.


Wash your hands frequently. Try not to touch your face. This is a Virus. People get sick, but not all people die.
 

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Realize that until we either have a vaccine, or have a large portion of the population immune due to infection and recovery, we are merely postponing the inevitable. If we temporarily quell the infections, but a large portion of the population is still vulnerable, a single infected person introduced into the population starts the cycle over. And the longer this goes on, the longer it will take the economy to recover. To some extent the people refusing to isolate are doing the rest of us a favor, as they will likely get infected, removing their numbers from the portion still susceptible to infection. Of course, we then need to isolate from them so they don't pass it along.

If there's a silver lining in this, it will be the proof that the medical community is obviously unqualified to deal with this sort of problem, and hopefully steps will be taken to improve before the next one comes along, and the one after that.

I still like my idea of engineering a similar virus, with fewer and less harsh effects, that will still confer immunity to this one. Preferably more contagious. Infect sample populations, send them out in the world to spread it. Much cheaper and quicker than making 300 million doses of vaccine
Back to the already heavily criticized "herd immunity" or what i like to call the "Doctrine of Death". The only way you effectively achieve herd or group immunity is with a vaccine. Anything less than a vaccine to reach group immunity is so disastrous, does not guarantee a shorter period to obtain it nor are those who propose it willing to post their death numbers nor guarantee the % of the population that needs to be infected. Move on.
 

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People grew sick of the social distancing measures as they dragged on into the summer of 1918. When the great war finally ended in late November, people took to the streets to celebrate their good fortune. In the coming weeks, the second wave of the pandemic killed more people than the war. It's not a game...
4567.jpg
 

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"The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5%." In October 1918, 200,000 deaths were recorded in the US. In November 11 of 1918 the end of the war enabled a resurgence. As people celebrated Armistice Day with parades and large partiess, a complete disaster from the public health standpoint, a rebirth of the epidemic occurred in some cities. The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died. Just as the war had effected the course of influenza, influenza affected the war. Entire fleets were ill with the disease and men on the front were too sick to fight. The flu was devastating to both sides, killing more men than their own weapons could." Photo of an emergency hospital 1918
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