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only 2 known cases in my county in Oregon, I'll pack a sandwich, make one stop for fuel, and go for a ride. It's only 40 degrees on my front porch now with a dusting of snow remaining from last night, but temps are to be 55 around noon... perfect.
 

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This resource shows US states, their current status ("shelter in place" etc), and projections as to when hospitals would be overloaded based on that state's (and population's) actions or lack thereof. It presents the information visually, which I personally think makes more of an impact than does just hearing numbers and stats.
 

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only 2 known cases in my county in Oregon, I'll pack a sandwich, make one stop for fuel, and go for a ride. It's only 40 degrees on my front porch now with a dusting of snow remaining from last night, but temps are to be 55 around noon... perfect.
Byronw, I hear ya! A bike ride this afternoon here in PA is on my to-do list as well. We're supposed to hit the mid-high 50s. Just making one stop, for gas, and I now use disposable gloves for that which then get tossed right in the gas station trash can. From what I saw last week, the last time I was out on my bike, there are fewer vehicles on the road in general which is a good thing for all of us.
 

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Just making one stop, for gas, and I now use disposable gloves for that which then get tossed right in the gas station trash can.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 

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The "curve" calculations are also missing one important aspect and in the US this is critical to determining future cases. The cases being reported are confirmed cases and not actual cases. In China, had they just been looking at confirmed cases to put in measures there would have been a horrendous number of cases there. There were at least 5 times more actual (onset) cases than diagnosed cases in China when they went to lockdown.
 

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From looking at today's confirmed cases in the US it seems those more densely populated states who had taken more aggressive steps have begun to flatten the curve, NYC is another case. Not sure why Cuomo is grandstanding since nurses and doctors at public hospitals in that state for the last two years have had to deal with a reduction of 20,000 beds and just a few days ago the Governor's task force is recommending reducing medicaid funding. This is not a specific criticism of one donor corrupted political party over another.
 

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Discussion Starter #30
The "curve" calculations are also missing one important aspect and in the US this is critical to determining future cases. The cases being reported are confirmed cases and not actual cases. In China, had they just been looking at confirmed cases to put in measures there would have been a horrendous number of cases there. There were at least 5 times more actual (onset) cases than diagnosed cases in China when they went to lockdown.
Yeah, given the paucity of testing that we've done there's no way to really know how many cases we have. And since testing is becoming more available (somewhat) you can't really compare numbers from 1-2 weeks ago to now.
That's why I used deaths in scenario I put in the OP, it's a much more reliable number.
 

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The number of actual cases corresponds to the fatalities, the important number to look at are the number of cases being reported, the more cases the more fatalities...
cases.png deaths.png
 

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Case fatality rate for the US, March 25, 2020, is 1.5%. However, this number can rise since the total recovered cases is still low and the number of serious hospitalized cases are rising.
 

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Obviously they are using aggregate risk numbers to keep the populace compliant. Large portions of the population are at nearly zero risk. Treating everyone the same is foolish to the extreme. Until a large portion of the population has immunity, either through a vaccine, or actual infection, it will always be a ticking time bomb. And I suspect we will start seeing significant numbers of fatalities through consequences of the quarantining, including suicides, that the medical profession will choose to ignore. Mostly the public is getting the mushroom treatment here. I suspect almost everyone under 40 could resume normal life, and survive infection without hospital involvement. Us old folks will need to take precautions, as a vulnerable population. But there's a pretty good chance that even the old folks can be parsed into higher and lower risk categories. Non-smoker, healthy weight, fit, exercises regularly. Maybe not even that big a risk for me. Mostly the medical profession is trying disguise the fact that they are incompetent in this situation.
 

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The theory of "herd immunity" was entertained in the UK until it was shown this was going to result in a horrendous number of deaths and with no certainty that it would work. If there was a vaccine to achieve herd immunity then that would be different. It's well explained in other studies. However, this is a novel coronavirus and what is needed is to reduce the number of infections requiring hospitalizations to give the healthcare system time to better prepare and for researchers to unlock the many secrets of this virus and its mutations as well as determining what antiviral medications may be useful to reduce hospitalizations and fatalities. This requires a hammer not polite words or fantasies of an Easter Bunny saviour. There is no guarantee of how long us duffers would need to stay out of circulation if you allow this virus freewill to find hosts, nor is there any guarantee anymore that any age group is "safe". Until you know you have no more actual cases you leave yourself open to a second wave and in 1918 it was the second wave that reaped death across the world in the tens of millions. Have a read of this...

 

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Discussion Starter #36 (Edited)
CDC posted numbers a little while ago. 994 total deaths as of 4:00pm 3/25. Previous day the number was 737, so an increase of 257, percentage-wise that's 35%. That makes the doubling time 2.3 days, not the 2.7-2.8 that it's been.
Now, a single day's data doesn't mean much, but I think it's fair to say that we don't have grounds for optimism.
Keep in mind that in the OP I used 3 for the doubling time. If the real number closer to 2.5 then things will be much worse.
 

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Us strommers in Canada are not out of the woodwork here, as they say, but we are concerned for our bothers and sisters south of us and wish you well, heed what the rest of the world is saying and experiencing, heed what is working not what is not working...you all deserve the very best and I sincerely wish you well...hopefully we can all get on our bikes and go where ever we desire again. I go out into the garage every day and apologize to my bike. I take it out of the garage and turn the key and start it and run it until its nice and warm, I can hear it purr in delight. Cheers my friends.
 

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One thing that will be interesting will be whether the deaths from nursing homes will be additive or selective. As in, say there are 50,000 deaths now attributed to influenza and then 50,000 are attributed to COVID19. Will they be cumulative — ie 100,000 — or will a large number of those who would have died of the flu die of coronavirus so that the new total is, say, 60,000. If its the former, all this kerfuffle is warranted. If it is the latter, tougher to justify.

And for those thinking I am being heartless regarding the welgair of the aged, my mom died Jan 19. I know the grief of losing a parent
 

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One thing that will be interesting will be whether the deaths from nursing homes will be additive or selective. As in, say there are 50,000 deaths now attributed to influenza and then 50,000 are attributed to COVID19. Will they be cumulative — ie 100,000 — or will a large number of those who would have died of the flu die of coronavirus so that the new total is, say, 60,000. If its the former, all this kerfuffle is warranted. If it is the latter, tougher to justify.

And for those thinking I am being heartless regarding the welgair of the aged, my mom died Jan 19. I know the grief of losing a parent
My condolences, truly. I can't imagine how difficult that is to bear.
 

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Rich, have a look at the China chart I provided...the current death rate doesn't reflect the actual cases so just following that will give you an ever increasing case fatality rate since there is little federal coordination of the virus spread in the US. In the US it'll be the State and local governments that can give you hope. If I was you living in the US I'd take notice of what the federal reserve just did and that would give you a good idea what you can expect rather than looking a deaths each day. They just backstopped the bank and financial sector some $14 trillion not only to tide this sector over in the short term but also the long term....that signifies more than a few weeks before people can wander about searching for hidden easter eggs. If they do they'll find one virus masquerading as an egg salivating over brand new hosts to infect. Follow the successful measures that are being used elsewhere to protect yourself and your neighbours is my suggestion. Time to come together...
 

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