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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Hmm, seems a little odd that there's nothing here on it. I'm sure the Arena is full, but maybe adults can have a conversation too. :)

There's been a few threads on some other forums I'm on, primarily GSResources. I thought I'd share a couple of things, because I'm seeing a lot of people who think the whole situation is being overblown. I'm hoping we can keep this civil and non-political.

First, one of the big things we asked to consider are the future projections. Those are, by definition, extrapolations. So, here's my take on the pitfalls:

To do an extrapolation, you're typically plotting a set of discrete data points (most often a time series) and then doing a curve fit. Once you have that equation you extend the x-axis and calculate the corresponding y's. If the x-axis is time, we're predicting the future.

All well and good, but there are 3 main sources of possible error.

1) the data that you're basing everything on may not be completely accurate
2) The curve fit is by definition an approximation. Most real-world data doesn't exactly fit neat mathematical concepts like exponential, logarithmic or polynomial.
3) Most importantly, in order for the future trend to have any meaning the future conditions must very closely match those that produced the original data.

Add up all three sources of error (and 1 and 3 are both likely to be significant in covid 19 scenarios) and the output of the extrapolation is very definitely a speculation, by any reasonable definition.


Having pointed all that out, if you look at the data, the death rate doubling time looks stable and reliable, at about 2.7-2.8 days.

Given that, let's go out on a limb and peer into the future, 2-3 weeks out. I picked Easter because the President is talking about re-opening things around then, so a look at what the situation might be then seemed logical. Plus any further out than 3 weeks and error factor #3 may become significant.

So I looked at the numbers and did a little free hand, speculative extrapolation.


That smiley's not really appropriate, because things are grim.

Right now the deaths in the US are more than doubling every 3 days. Deaths per day seem to be right around 200.

Let's be a bit conservative and say the doubling time is 3 days. Easter is about 18 days away. 18/3=6, so 6 doubling periods until Easter. 2 raised to the 6th power is 64. 64 times 200 = 12,800 deaths per day. At that rate, in a little more than a week after Easter we'll have 100,000 people dead. Just in that week!
For comparison, in a normal week about 60,000 die in the US, from all causes.

Now, that's extrapolation, and it could be off:

Main reason to think it won't be that bad:
Social distancing has flattened the curve elsewhere, if people take it seriously here then the doubling rate will slow down.

Main reason to think it will be worse:
The health care system will completely break down under that kind of pressure and many people will die who are now being saved. (including people with problems other than CV)

But even if we use pretty conservative assumptions, it's likely that things are going to get much, much worse.



Please people, take this seriously.
 

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The busiest commercial HWY in North America at rush hour in a city of 5 million + Toronto

This is the norm
270505


This today

270503


LAX at 3 pm
270504


I'm in self isolation tho it only became mandatory tonight and I got back from Chile yesterday morning. Ontario has 13 deaths on a population of 18 million. We got hit badly by SARS - learned our lesson then fumbled it recently by destroying dated masks.
We had a million Canadians return home from Spring Break this week. We'll see what that brings but the majority of businesses are closed as are schools, playgrounds, sport centers, parks, gov offices, all restaurants except for take out.
 

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Since this seems to be a world wide epidemic taking it lightly seems to be remiss. Even if some leaders want to down play the importance following the medical scientist suggestions seem prudent. Dr's are calling for more prudence and for more protective equipment for the caregivers. Best we heed those pleas and not lose those that care for us. Stay home, stay safe.
 

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I'm on Day 5 of isolation. I got a flu. Could be Covid-19, but that would have to have been a Community Spread because I haven't traveled. The rest of Canada has acknowledged that half the test positives are due to Community Spread now, not travel. Here in Nova Scotia they aren't admitting to that so they can refuse to test people who haven't traveled - covering up that they don't have nearly enough test kits - or doctors. They wouldn't test me, so I got the flu, I guess. Still, staying home until April Fools Day.

Yeah, 99% of the world is doing the self-isolation for travelers and social (physical) distancing for everyone else. Everything closed except for essential services (that includes the liquor stores in Quebec :LOL:). That's going to cost everyone for a couple of years at least with governments blowing their budgets worldwide. Some will say this was not the right approach and they'll say that for years. BUT, right or wrong, a mostly universal plan was required or it would fail for sure.

When does the world re-open? One month? Two? I hope it doesn't go longer than that. Will all the government aid packages save the economy and people's life habits (shopping, weekend getaways, new cars, bikes, houses)? I do hope the real estate market doesn't suffer too badly - waiting to list and move. Our realtor said today they are still listing houses and buyers are still looking - virtual first look, then a real visit after signing a declaration that they haven't traveled, etc. Realtor opens the doors, cupboards and such with rubber gloves, buyers don't touch anything.

I can see the new cases peaking at three weeks as Rich said, maybe even a bit less now that everyone seems to be on board with the isolation/distancing/everything closed scenario. I also think the plateau > decreasing new case numbers will happen noticeably quickly after that - unless someone blows it by letting everyone out prematurely.

Cheers,
Glenn
 

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Covid 19 has been around for about 4 months, there has been about 21000 deaths world wide but around 11000 of them have been in the last 5 days. It is amazing to me that there are people that don't take this seriously. We are making efforts in Canada but I still don't think its enough.
 

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A friend of mine is an ER Doctor in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. He usually makes light of most health scares. Earlier this week he told me he was scared shitless over what is happening and that the worst was still 2 to 3 weeks away, (In Canada.)

Another Dr.Client of mine in Ontario said much the same thing. Any of myn Doctor clients I talked to over the last wek or two have said much the same,.

They are scared.

..Tom
 

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As you guy are probably aware here in the UK we are in Lockdown in all but name. I don't really agree with it but if it saves lives and prevents bodies piling up in the streets then it's got to be worth it.

Essential things like supermarkets, petrol stations and garages are still open but with restrictions on use. delivery services are still running so online purchases still arrive from most outlets, personal travel is restricted to the absolute minimum.

I'm classed as key worker but as my work is seasonal I've been furloughed until either this passes or our essential duties resume, which suits me just fine as my wife is in dire need of a new knee and we have a disabled son who would normally both receive support that is currently unavailable.

Whatever opinion you have I would urge anyone to just follow the guidance, at least that way we can all get this over and done with and get back to our normal lives sooner rather than later.
 

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I think I read 25 doctors have died in Italy now. My gratitude to all front line workers. Hopefully each society does their bit to get on top of this. If the economic fallout leads to unrest and ruination, the toll might be much higher. I miss the hand shake. Great way to do business.
 

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I am conflicted about going for a ride on the bike during this period of social distancing. Certainly little threat of spreading or contracting a virus but not an essential activity. It does not seem to support spirit of the isolation strategy. It is not the least dangerous activity and I would not want to put a burden on my family or the health care system in the case of a spill.
It has been a long winter with only one ride since October....but I guess I will wait another month.
 

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There are some very good articles on line from a Nobel prize winning biophysicist named Michael Levitt regarding the progression of the virus. He accurately predicted the number of cases that China would ultimately see before the virus began to subside, and the number of deaths. He's not an epidemiologist, which in this case is actually a good thing; he studies complex number systems. I won't reiterate what he said here; there are ample interviews with him on line. The gist is that the rising numbers of infection aren't the number to be focused on, but rather the rate of infection.

Read some of his interviews; they give a perspective that isn't being seen much right now.
 

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I paid a lot of attention to the projections early on because of my background. Having done some class work at the Harvard School of Public Health I naturally perk up when I see announcements etc with the schools name on it. They had projections pretty early that were scary bad. And we did pandemic exercise when I was Director of Emergency Preparedness, Safeguards and Security at Hanford. Yes this is real. Yes, this is serious. Yes, it is going to get worse. April and May are critically important. I shuddered when I read people poo-poo-ing the notion of cancelling this years gatherings. But not everybody was glued to the news early on. That should have changed by now.

Locally we are struggling to find a grocery store with meat, bread,etc. My mother is living with us because my sister and her kids had moved in with her while her house was being built and the kids were having trouble with the concept of social distancing. It's been good spending time with my mom. Almost a vacation from that standpoint.

I have ridden my bike a few times since this started. Out here in the country it isn't a problem and the beautiful spring scenery is a great relief.

On the good side, my wife thinks it is a great time to make list of honey-do projects. Which I guess is a good thing because I mistakenly thought it was a good time to work on my motorcycle. What would I do without her to keep me focused on important things?

Actually I'm pretty busy in the shop. Apparently this is still a good time for people to add accessories. Business is down, but we are getting by better than many.
 

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How in the world can riding your bike be anything but social distancing? I mean, if you ride, don't stop and end up back home again how can that be not safe? I do live in the country and ride in the country.
Just asking because I'm ready to go riding.
 

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I agree that it will get worse. All epidemics get worse, in terms of aggregate numbers, right up to the moment that the numbers begin to fall. These corollary events, like the shortages of bread and toilet paper(!) aren't an indicator of the severity of the virus; they're an indicator of the panicked herd response of the general population to the unknown.

The fact that more people are contracting the virus every day has become the de-facto judgement on the progression of the virus, but that's not the only number that's relevant here.
 

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I am conflicted about going for a ride on the bike during this period of social distancing. Certainly little threat of spreading or contracting a virus but not an essential activity. It does not seem to support spirit of the isolation strategy. It is not the least dangerous activity and I would not want to put a burden on my family or the health care system in the case of a spill.
It has been a long winter with only one ride since October....but I guess I will wait another month.
I've been riding everyday, gas is cheap! Little to no risk of spreading/contracting the virus. However the concern is the spill and placing a burden on the health care system. Locally this isn't an issue, we have I think 4 cases. Once that number gets higher I'll stop riding. I'd encourage you to get out for a ride. Mine have been short in nature, half an hour or so but it gives me something to look forward to and it's important to get out of the house. I work from home 8-4 and then most days, weather allowing I ride from 4-5ish. I spend time looking over the bike, getting gear on, etc gets me moving a bit too :)

Mental health is serious and something not to be forgotten during all of this mess. People need to get out go for walks, hikes, rides, etc.
 

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I paid a lot of attention to the projections early on because of my background. Having done some class work at the Harvard School of Public Health I naturally perk up when I see announcements etc with the schools name on it. They had projections pretty early that were scary bad. And we did pandemic exercise when I was Director of Emergency Preparedness, Safeguards and Security at Hanford. Yes this is real. Yes, this is serious. Yes, it is going to get worse. April and May are critically important. I shuddered when I read people poo-poo-ing the notion of cancelling this years gatherings. But not everybody was glued to the news early on. That should have changed by now.

Locally we are struggling to find a grocery store with meat, bread,etc. My mother is living with us because my sister and her kids had moved in with her while her house was being built and the kids were having trouble with the concept of social distancing. It's been good spending time with my mom. Almost a vacation from that standpoint.

I have ridden my bike a few times since this started. Out here in the country it isn't a problem and the beautiful spring scenery is a great relief.

On the good side, my wife thinks it is a great time to make list of honey-do projects. Which I guess is a good thing because I mistakenly thought it was a good time to work on my motorcycle. What would I do without her to keep me focused on important things?

Actually I'm pretty busy in the shop. Apparently this is still a good time for people to add accessories. Business is down, but we are getting by better than many.
I was one that was poo-pooing canceling gatherings this summer and still hope our gathering in June will be held. I've been out for a couple rides since everything was shut down in Las Vegas. The peak of the infections haven't been reached yet in the US with New York City leading the way. 405 cases, 10 deaths in Nevada. Our local stores are now limiting how many meats, paper products and water we can buy. There are special senior hours during the week so I can at least get in the store early and get something.
 

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I am conflicted about going for a ride on the bike during this period of social distancing. Certainly little threat of spreading or contracting a virus but not an essential activity. It does not seem to support spirit of the isolation strategy. It is not the least dangerous activity and I would not want to put a burden on my family or the health care system in the case of a spill.
It has been a long winter with only one ride since October....but I guess I will wait another month.
I've been having that same thought, but I've decided to ride. I'm not riding with my club anymore, and I'm not ranging as far afield as I normally do. I'm using the bike to do groceries, and maybe not taking the most direct routes to and from the store. I'm riding to deliver supplies to friends and relatives who are not able to get out. And occasionally I go for a short ride just to go for a ride. I think the greatly reduced traffic lowers the risk, and it keeps me sane.
 

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I've now been exposed so it's only a matter of time before more and more of us on the forum start coming down with symptoms. I'm very isolated from my social circles but I volunteer at a homeless shelter and my partner works there. We have both been exposed and the homeless population in Montreal is starting to show signs. The city finally opened up a quarantine hotel for homeless folks who are getting tested, and they are opening a medical unit specifically for them this week, although that is in place of a 183 bed winter shelter that closed down to make way for this.

I'm not scared for myself, I'm 41 and pretty fit and healthy, there's a chance it will be pretty unpleasant but I will survive. I have a garage full of projects and I have cats and lots of books to read. I hope everyone stays safe and informed and takes care with everything they do these days.
 

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A friend of mine is an ER Doctor in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. He usually makes light of most health scares. Earlier this week he told me he was scared shitless over what is happening and that the worst was still 2 to 3 weeks away, (In Canada.)

Another Dr.Client of mine in Ontario said much the same thing. Any of myn Doctor clients I talked to over the last wek or two have said much the same,.

They are scared.

..Tom
Let's hope that the worst is only 2 to 3 weeks away. What's scarier is the prospect of it continuing to grow even past that point. Italy has only recently peaked (maybe, only a few days of data yet) in daily new cases and deaths. It looks like they may have turned the corner, but only recently. I surely hope we have gotten ahead of the curve by a week or two compared to Italy.

I'm cautiously hopeful that the steps taken so far in Canada will flatten the curve. We still need to greatly improve testing, contact tracking for suspected/confirmed cases, and enforced isolation for confirmed (and maybe suspected, too) cases. Unfortunately some people are not following the quarantine/self-isolation orders (requests, really, especially with a lack of enforcement or penalties).
 
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