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General V-Strom Discussion Talk about all things V-Strom not limited to just one of the above models

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post #141 of 165 Old 11-23-2019, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by oldjeep View Post
In any event, it is deer season in WI, and I'll be flying down roads flanked by corn fields and woods hoping not to encounter a deer or hunter. Probably make it back ok.
Good luck on the ride. Tomorrow is the last day of modern gun season in Kentucky and I have a doe tag left. So, while you are trying to avoid the deer, I am hoping to shoot another one.

Two of my 4 motorcycle wrecks have been hitting deer (50% I think, but now I am not so sure on my math). Maybe after I figure out my math quiz above, I will calculate my odds of encountering venison on my Tenere again.
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post #142 of 165 Old 11-23-2019, 11:55 PM
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Man, you can really tell when winter has set in for riders in the northern hemisphere...

That is for damn sure . I ride in the winter, but the weather has been sucking badly. I have been spending my time reducing the chances of hitting another deer. Anybody riding through my area can thank me later, or stop in for some venison.
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post #143 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 01:25 PM
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Never took statistics. Took plenty of other math though. Instead of being a , why dont you show me your math.
Basically, the easiest way to understand the statistical problem is to think of the chance of not having an accident. So, if you plan to wreck .03 times each year. The first year you have a 97% chance of not wrecking. The second year you also have a 97% chance of not wrecking, but 97% of the time you did not get there at all. So, your chance of not wrecking in two years is .97*.97 or .97^2 or .9409. So your chance of wrecking in two years is 1-.9409 or about 6%. Which seems a lot like just adding the 3%s together. However, over time the two methods diverge. So for 33 years the chances of not wrecking are .97^33 or .366. So the chances of wrecking are about 63%. Adding 3% 33 times gives you 99%. What is going on is that your chances of never wrecking are improved because you also have a chance of wrecking multiple times. Another way to check this is to see what happens after 34 years of riding. Adding the 3% together gives you 102% chance of wrecking which just seems wrong.

Now, putting the probability lesson behind, I think the real problems are what constitutes an average rider, how the statistic was developed, and that the chances of wrecking are not independent. First, I don't think a new rider is an average rider. Over our lifespans we probably at one point were novice riders. So, our chance of being in a wreck over a lifetime is inflated because for a year or two we were not average riders. Also, I suspect that the 1% came from insurance claims. I would guess that a lot of wrecks don't go to insurance. So, an average rider is more likely to be in a wreck than the statistics would imply. Finally, I don't think that wrecks are independent. So, if did not have a wreck last year you are less likely to be in one next year than someone who was in one last year. If you take all riders who hit a deer last year they are on average riding in more deer prone locations than riders who did not hit a deer. If you take all riders who were hit by cars last year they are on average riding in locations with less attentive drivers than riders who were not hit by cars, etc.
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post #144 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 01:52 PM
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Whatever happened to plain old .."sh%& happens"??😉
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post #145 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 04:26 PM
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In any event, it is deer season in WI, and I'll be flying down roads flanked by corn fields and woods hoping not to encounter a deer or hunter. Probably make it back ok.
Only deer I saw today were in the backs of vehicles. Almost all of the corn was harvested. Got ro my folks place and made the snowmobiles ready for the season. 39F. Fingers were a little cold by the end of each 70 mile ride, but otherwise a beautiful day for a ride. Even saw a couple of harley riders wearing full helmets.
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post #146 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 05:59 PM
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Whatever happened to plain old .."sh%& happens"??😉
It has morphed into "Ca Ca Occurs"

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post #147 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 06:53 PM Thread Starter
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English major here...

Consulting Ouija Board.. please stand by for correct statistics.

For those who own or are considering a new or used Strom - Welcome to the Borg. Resistance is futile.
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post #148 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 07:35 PM
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Finally, I don't think that wrecks are independent. So, if did not have a wreck last year you are less likely to be in one next year than someone who was in one last year.
Ain't that the truth.
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post #149 of 165 Old 11-24-2019, 07:52 PM
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It makes for a good motivational poster to hang in the halls of a corporate headquarters, but it seems to be fact that Albert Einstein never made that statement. Just sayin'.........
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post #150 of 165 Old 11-25-2019, 07:45 AM
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Statistics is mental masturbation with numbers. Very easy to manipulate statics to make then come out any way you like.

The only way to eliminate the potential for having an accident while riding a motorcycle is do not ride a motorcycle
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